Day 2 of the asi virtual Conference, November 3, took a close look at the various TV/video services, notably VOD, in terms of the balance between advertising and subscription and between linear and VOD offerings. The effects of COVID-19 and the current and likely changes in viewing were intriguing for the content providers. Understanding this landscape provides an important basis for the TV/video measurement intricacies and complexities that will be addressed by this asi Conference the rest of the week.
In the opening presentation, “Broadcaster streaming, hybrid business models and the future of viewing”, Guy Bisson, Ampere Analysis reviewed the advertising based AVOD, Broadcaster based BVOD, subscription based SVOD and COVID’s role. His perspective is that there will be more hybrid operations with providers offering all the various access options to consumers which could be based on collaborations between frenemies, e.g., BritBox – BBC & ITV, to create hybrid TV/video companies. Guy considers that Netflix started the change in the content landscape of the TV industry and the associated audience shifts. Amazon, Apple joined that Global move along with many other subscription services, Peacock being the latest. In his opinion COVID’s massive complexities accelerated some of the evolution and the overall shift to streaming. However, advertising-based VOD services will continue to be driven by broadcasters and consumers limited wallets.
In conversations with, Faz Aftab, Director of Platform Distribution, ITV, Brian Fuhrer, National and Cross-Platform Product Leader, Nielsen USA, and Niels Baas, Managing Director, NLZIET, Holland some clear principles will remain and drive content, programming and business decisions.
Live is still alive. Ad free is a consumer option. Same content is likely to appear across linear, AVOD and SVOD. Key to success is focus on fundamentals of the platform and maximizing value of each piece of content. Massive fragmentation and fierce competition increases. Audience measurement complexities in bringing audience data for linear and digital together – single source Cross-Media Measurement, XMM, a gordian knot and industry political football? (Routers a piece but only a piece of the puzzle.) A platform’s own walled garden data fails to reveal viewing landscape relationships. Consumers just want to watch a program. Content libraries critical. Scripted programs will stay under stress until COVID is past.
Frédéric Vaulpré, Glance-Médiamétrie, presented, “A Global review of lockdown viewing – towards a ‘new normal’?” He emphasized that COVID has and continues to change TV viewing post lockdown in quite different ways in very different countries. Echoing Guy Bisson, his analysis of viewing time showed that new ways of TV viewing continue to grow despite the boost in live linear consumption during lockdowns. TV consumption appears to have been positively impacted overall. In the UK SVOD is becoming mainstream and skews younger. Disney SVOD impacted Netflix but only in the initial launch months.
Parul Arora of Nielsen, India, and Prathyusha Agarwal of Zee Entertainment Enterprises demonstrated the value of comprehensive viewing data (especially program behaviour) and analysis of core and non-core viewing groups for working and non-working demos by State, during COVID. The results helped Zee plan and predict content and scheduling once lockdown was lifted or partially lifted. Their presentation was entitled, “Helping Zee Entertainment anticipate and prepare for shifts in viewing behaviour during COVID-19”.
Sports viewing has suffered tremendous disruptions, so David Boxer and Marc Rapparlie, Global MMK reviewed, “How COVID-19 is changing the sporting world in 2020 and beyond”. In short: massive lost content globally! Loss of, live hours, major league games, and thousands of dedicated sports feeds showed ~21% decline in sports viewing. Consequences include: Rights negotiations will be modified; new sports content will appear on different platforms including Pay-per-View; major sports teams/players may take on additional marketing/presentation roles; gaming may be introduced; the viewing experience will embrace further improvements, e.g., crowd noise, etc.; COVID rebates from sports bodies inevitable; audience revenue sharing may be the new business model potentially as part of multiple deals with an array of narrow broadcasters?
“This time it’s personal: an international view on streaming trends”, was presented by Laurence Chausson and Knut-Arne Futsæter, Kantar. They asked simply just how many subscriptions can audiences afford? With Netflix the SVOD leader worldwide there is still a role for Broadcast VOD and linear which are advertising supported. Ultimately content providers will seek the richer value in the total viewing of audiences across all platforms across all devices. In that regard they quoted, Rear Admiral, Dr. Grace Hopper, “One accurate measure is worth 1000 expert opinions!”
Can linear and VOD continue to co-exist? That question was addressed by Neil Thurman, LMU Munich via an analysis of BBC3’s move to on-line VOD. His, “How migration to online affects channel audiences – the BBC3 experience” revealed the costs of content – ~70% or £80 million much of which could be cut from the budget by migration – to £30 million. However, this migration resulted in a loss of 70% of weekly viewers and 89% of viewing minutes. The VOD program viewing profile also changed. While linear restricts a consumers’ viewing schedule the financial pressure on linear is substantial considering the content cost savings for on-line VOD and the move of youth audiences to the on-line world. Interestingly Neil believes BBC may bring BBC3 back to linear. Stay tuned!!
This is the second article in this series. For the first article please go here (ED.)
